A mishap? – No, sir: a fiasco!

As soon as once more, the outcomes of the second spherical of a legislative election deviate very clearly from the “predictions” revealed by pollsters previous to the vote. Nobody anticipated such a foul consequence for LREM, which lacks an absolute majority of 43 seats. And rightly so: nobody anticipated the result of the RN, which might enter the Nationwide Meeting (89 seats). Two information are linked: in opposition to RN, the LREM candidates misplaced extra duels than “anticipated”. However NUPES additionally misplaced greater than anticipated in opposition to RN.

For LREM, the primary spherical of legislative elections was a transparent setback; the second is a defeat, even a fiasco. Macron relied on absolutely the majority or a minimal, It has a relative majority sturdy sufficient to get its texts voted on, counting on a few of the Republican lawmakers who’re divided over their stances on the federal government. However with an absolute majority of 43 seats and solely 64 Republicans or UDI deputies, issues look far more difficult for the Head of State.

Within the coming days, negotiations might be going properly to get a parliamentary majority picture from the Elysée. Nice promotions might be provided to one another. We’ll see which Republican MPs (particularly) will heartily must be thrown into the galley of a authorities that can have been (particularly) very weakened from its inception—not solely within the Nationwide Meeting, but in addition and above all in mass. of the inhabitants

The abstention fee is 53.8% and three.5% of the clean or invalid votes are added to this. Solely 42.7% of registrants voted for one of many competing candidates. In different phrases, if the federal government is within the minority within the Nationwide Meeting, it’s far more so within the inhabitants and particularly among the many younger and paid mass. In flip, the federal government’s fragility within the Nationwide Meeting may have the impact of encouraging youth and staff to take motion in opposition to Macron’s reactionary insurance policies. That is very dangerous information for the French bourgeoisie, which urgently wants radical counter-reforms. It might additionally put sturdy strain on the LREM and the Republicans to reach forming some kind of parliamentary majority. However the disintegration of the Nationwide Meeting, the Republicans’ starvation for revenge, and Macron’s deep rejection by the lots make the equation appear much more complicated than anticipated.

With 142 MPs, NUPES’s outcomes are within the “decrease bracket” of the projections pollsters launched final week. In fact, because of the first-round deal between the FI, PS, Greens and PCF, that is mirrored within the nonetheless sturdy enhance within the variety of seats, particularly for the FI and Greens. When it comes to upcoming struggles in opposition to authorities coverage, the FI’s breakthrough (84 seats) might be superb information. However given the 7.7 million votes gathered by Jean-Luc Mélenchon on April 10, the success of NUPES must be put into perspective.

As we underlined by analyzing the outcomes of NUPES by way of variety of votes, NUPES didn’t create electoral momentum within the first spherical. It is clear he did not arouse any extra within the second. We’ll analyze the main points of his outcomes later, particularly in line with the sorts of duels he enters. However already, two essential information are clear. First, regardless of the objections of the NUPES leaders, the first-round abstentions didn’t transfer within the interval between the 2 rounds. Secondly, we stated: NUPES lose a major variety of duels in opposition to RN.

Revolution urged to vote for NUPES, the one different of the best and much proper. Nevertheless, we warned that this alliance of the FI with disreputable events wouldn’t arouse enthusiasm among the many most exploited and oppressed layers of the inhabitants. We additionally emphasised that the so-called “republican entrance in opposition to RN” between the 2 rounds of the presidential election can solely strengthen the RN fairly than weaken it. Legislative outcomes verify this. Furthermore, the so-called “republican entrance” was shattered on Sunday. Nevertheless, past the fault of the “republican entrance,” RN’s success confirms a robust pattern that’s not new: polarization rising politics – left meat Proper. If this polarization is extra clearly expressed in direction of the best within the parliamentary elections, it’s as a result of NUPES in its composition isn’t a super automobile for expressing the polarization clearly on the left.

There is a crucial cupboard change on the agenda. However earlier than it sees the sunshine of day, the following authorities is already in disaster. The youth and staff will as soon as once more see this weak point of energy as an incentive to mobilize in opposition to the reactionary coverage demanded by the bourgeoisie. On this context, the leaders of the left and the commerce union motion – particularly the leaders of the FI and CGT – face huge obligations. Any longer, they have to put together nice social struggles, not solely to oppose the reactionary coverage of the Macron authorities, but in addition to speed up his fall and change it with a left authorities with a program of breaking with the capitalist system. . We’re conscious that this has not been the orientation of the leaders of the FI and CGT confederation to this point. However this orientation Revolution will defend it within the coming months, as a result of it’s the solely factor that corresponds to the target wants of the youth and the employees’ motion in opposition to the backdrop of a deep financial, social and environmental disaster.

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