new heatwave and worsening drought? 27/07/2022

After a very scorching July marked by file droughts, the forecasts for August are usually not reassuring. A brand new warmth wave is threatening and the dry anomaly appears to need to withstand…

Menace of warmth wave from early August

After a number of days of near-normal temperatures for the season, excessive stress will strengthen over the close to Atlantic and France for the weekend, 30 and 31 July 2022. Heading to Central Europe early subsequent week, early August 2022.

Continental scenario for Tuesday, August 2, 2022 – By way of ECMWF

Within the animation of the air mass under, we are able to clearly see the gradual warming of the air mass over the entire of southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin, and this extremely popular air stretching in direction of France, ultimately taking up the entire nation from the center. subsequent week (round 3 and 4 August 2022). This will likely be adopted within the north of the nation (ocean air), however this is not going to profit the southern areas, the place extremely popular climate will proceed via the primary week of August and probably later. With air mass temperatures exceeding 20°C at an altitude of 1,500 meters within the south of the nation, the chance of a brand new warmth wave is actual.

Air plenty at 850 hPa (roughly 1500m) from Wednesday 27 July to Monday 8 August 2022 – by way of wxcharts.com

Temperatures which might be already scorching within the south firstly of subsequent week could improve additional within the north by midweek. With temperatures above 35°C in three-quarters of France and 40°C and even increased within the southwest, extraordinarily scorching patterns have proliferated throughout the nation within the final hours, in addition to under the American sample for Wednesday, August 3, 2022! This card shouldn’t be taken actually, however testifies to the potential accessible…

Projection of the American mannequin for Wednesday, August 3, 2022 most temperatures – by way of wxcharts.com

Regardless, there’s a new menace of probably everlasting heatwaves within the southern areas from the start of subsequent week. From Monday, August 1, 2022, temperatures from Aquitaine to Provence ought to exceed 35 °C and should rise just a few levels within the following days, with nights turning into milder and milder. The forecast for Toulouse exhibits 35 °C or extra for at the least 5 days from 1 to five August. From the weekend of 6 and seven August, the projections develop into extra blurred with much less scorching situations in addition to lengthy scorching situations.

Temperature modeling in Toulouse from Wednesday 27 July to Monday 8 August 2022 – by way of meteologix.com

It’s too early to outline the possible period, geographic extent and depth of this heatwave occasion, however areas of the southern half are probably the most uncovered to excessive and chronic warmth, with generally very excessive temperatures however extra fluctuating. envisaged within the north.

What’s the climate forecast for the remainder of August 2022?

temperatures

Relating to temperatures, the forecasts for August are last. Along with the doable scorching begin to the month we simply talked about, the European mannequin depends on sustaining excessive temperatures in the course of the second week of the month, however this anomaly will proceed for the second fortnight and can proceed past. all August 2022!

Weekly thermal anomalies in August 2022 – European mannequin by way of ECMWF

On the American mannequin aspect, the state of affairs is strictly the identical with extraordinarily excessive temperatures in the course of the first two weeks of the month, particularly within the southern half the place ranges will likely be scorching. As the nice and cozy anomaly continues throughout the area, it eases barely within the second half of August. No actual new anomalies on the horizon…

Weekly thermal anomalies in August 2022 – American mannequin by way of tropicaltidbits.com

Given the settlement between the completely different situations, we anticipate a major warmth anomaly in France throughout this month of August 2022, in keeping with the anomaly noticed in July. South of the Loire, the temperature distinction from regular appears to be probably the most vital with an actual threat of kind of everlasting heatwaves.

Thermal anomaly projection in August 2022 – Climate Cities

precipitation

Relating to precipitation, the European mannequin bets that the primary half of August 2022 will likely be extraordinarily dry, below the dominance of the massive anticyclonic cell talked about firstly of the article. The rain would virtually disappear. The dry anomaly appears to vanish in the course of the week of August 15-21 (probably just a few thunderstorms) earlier than returning to the tip of August. Anyway, the moist anomaly will not be modeled…

Weekly precipitation anomalies in August 2022 – European mannequin by way of ECMWF

Its American counterpart follows roughly the identical trajectory, modeling the primary two weeks of August extraordinarily dry over the nation. This dry anomaly was much less apparent however would proceed within the second half of the month. Notice, nonetheless, that in contrast to the European mannequin, the American mannequin fashions moist anomalies for the Pyrenees and Alps from doable storms.

Weekly precipitation anomalies in August 2022 – American mannequin by way of tropicaltidbits.com

Given the above patterns, it appears clear that August 2022 will nonetheless current a definite dry anomaly for many areas in France. Barely extra stormy climate might restrict this anomaly to the Alps and Pyrenees. With the soils already very dry on the finish of July, if these predictions come true, the drought might flip right into a catastrophe…

Precipitation anomaly projection in August 2022 – Climate Cities

Notice that forecasts for a number of weeks are for informational functions solely and shouldn’t be taken actually. Typically they will change and their reliability stays decrease than short-term forecasts.

Leave a Comment