new heatwave and worsening drought? 27/07/2022

After a very sizzling July marked by document droughts, the forecasts for August will not be reassuring. A brand new warmth wave is threatening and the dry anomaly appears to need to withstand…

Risk of warmth wave from early August

After a number of days of near-normal temperatures for the season, excessive strain will strengthen over the close to Atlantic and France for the weekend, 30 and 31 July 2022. Heading to Central Europe early subsequent week, early August 2022.

Continental state of affairs for Tuesday, August 2, 2022 – By way of ECMWF

Within the animation of the air mass under, we are able to clearly see the gradual warming of the air mass over the entire of southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin, and this extremely popular air stretching in the direction of France, finally taking up the entire nation from the center. subsequent week (round 3 and 4 August 2022). This will probably be adopted within the north of the nation (ocean air), however this won’t profit the southern areas, the place extremely popular climate will proceed via the primary week of August and presumably later. With air mass temperatures exceeding 20°C at an altitude of 1,500 meters within the south of the nation, the chance of a brand new warmth wave is actual.

Air lots at 850 hPa (roughly 1500m) from Wednesday 27 July to Monday 8 August 2022 – by way of wxcharts.com

Temperatures which are already scorching within the south at first of subsequent week could improve additional within the north by midweek. With temperatures above 35°C in three-quarters of France and 40°C and even increased within the southwest, extraordinarily sizzling patterns have proliferated throughout the nation within the final hours, in addition to under the American sample for Wednesday, August 3, 2022! This card shouldn’t be taken actually, however testifies to the potential accessible…

Projection of the American mannequin for Wednesday, August 3, 2022 most temperatures – by way of wxcharts.com

Regardless, there’s a new menace of presumably everlasting heatwaves within the southern areas from the start of subsequent week. From Monday, August 1, 2022, temperatures from Aquitaine to Provence ought to exceed 35 °C and should rise a number of levels within the following days, with nights turning into milder and milder. The forecast for Toulouse reveals 35 °C or extra for a minimum of 5 days from 1 to five August. From the weekend of 6 and seven August, the projections turn out to be extra blurred with much less sizzling situations in addition to lengthy scorching situations.

Temperature modeling in Toulouse from Wednesday 27 July to Monday 8 August 2022 – by way of meteologix.com

It’s too early to outline the possible length, geographic extent and depth of this heatwave occasion, however areas of the southern half are essentially the most uncovered to excessive and protracted warmth, with generally very excessive temperatures however extra fluctuating. envisaged within the north.

What’s the climate forecast for the remainder of August 2022?

temperatures

Relating to temperatures, the forecasts for August are last. Along with the attainable scorching begin to the month we simply talked about, the European mannequin depends on sustaining excessive temperatures throughout the second week of the month, however this anomaly will proceed for the second fortnight and can proceed past. all August 2022!

Weekly thermal anomalies in August 2022 – European mannequin by way of ECMWF

On the American mannequin facet, the situation is strictly the identical with extraordinarily excessive temperatures throughout the first two weeks of the month, particularly within the southern half the place ranges will probably be scorching. As the nice and cozy anomaly continues throughout the area, it eases barely within the second half of August. No actual new anomalies on the horizon…

Weekly thermal anomalies in August 2022 – American mannequin by way of tropicaltidbits.com

Given the settlement between the totally different situations, we anticipate a big warmth anomaly in France throughout this month of August 2022, consistent with the anomaly noticed in July. South of the Loire, the temperature distinction from regular appears to be essentially the most vital with an actual danger of roughly everlasting heatwaves.

Thermal anomaly projection in August 2022 – Climate Cities

precipitation

Relating to precipitation, the European mannequin bets that the primary half of August 2022 will probably be extraordinarily dry, below the dominance of the massive anticyclonic cell talked about at first of the article. The rain would nearly disappear. The dry anomaly appears to vanish throughout the week of August 15-21 (presumably a number of thunderstorms) earlier than returning to the top of August. Anyway, the moist anomaly is just not modeled…

Weekly precipitation anomalies in August 2022 – European mannequin by way of ECMWF

Its American counterpart follows roughly the identical trajectory, modeling the primary two weeks of August extraordinarily dry over the nation. This dry anomaly was much less apparent however would proceed within the second half of the month. Observe, nevertheless, that in contrast to the European mannequin, the American mannequin fashions moist anomalies for the Pyrenees and Alps from attainable storms.

Weekly precipitation anomalies in August 2022 – American mannequin by way of tropicaltidbits.com

Given the above patterns, it appears clear that August 2022 will nonetheless current a definite dry anomaly for many areas in France. Barely extra stormy climate may restrict this anomaly to the Alps and Pyrenees. With the soils already very dry on the finish of July, if these predictions come true, the drought may flip right into a catastrophe…

Precipitation anomaly projection in August 2022 – Climate Cities

Observe that forecasts for a number of weeks are for informational functions solely and shouldn’t be taken actually. Typically they’ll change and their reliability stays decrease than short-term forecasts.

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