What are the climate tendencies in France on the finish of summer time 2022? 08/15/2022

Though we’ve lastly discovered milder circumstances within the final hours, what are the projections for the second half of August and September 2022? Response objects.

Second half of August?

This week

As could be seen within the animation under, we’re presently below the affect of a low strain space affecting all of Western and Central Europe. This will probably be accountable for unstable climate with showers and thunderstorms within the coming days. Alternatively, even when the anticyclone stays within the heart of our Atlantic coast and the stream stays oceanic, we see an anticyclonic ridge stretching over the nation week by week.

Strain abnormality from Monday 15 August to Sunday 21 August 2022 (blue = low strain, pink = anticyclonic) – by way of tropicaltidbits.com

On this context, the subsequent few days will stay unstable. The japanese half will profit from a brilliant Tuesday, August 16, 2022, whereas the japanese half will burst with new showers and thunderstorms, shifting east and south of the area on Wednesday, August 17 and Thursday, August 18. Additionally it is beneficial to watch the chance of extreme and extreme storms in direction of the Languedoc. On the finish of the week, the excessive strain ridge will restore much less energetic climate with the normal north-south gradient: cloudy, few showers within the north, dry and dominant solar within the south.

Common climate forecast in France from Monday, August 15 to Sunday, August 21, 2022 – Climate Cities

Due to this fact, on Tuesday, August 16, 2022, we will anticipate a brand new temperature peak within the east and south of the nation, with values ​​reaching 30 to 33°C from Alsace to the Mediterranean. Within the West, values ​​will probably be seasonal solely. The thermometer will drop to close seasonal values ​​(and even barely under) throughout your complete nation earlier than a brand new warming begins within the south this weekend on August 20 and 21, 2022.

Temperature forecast in France from Monday, August 15 – Sunday, August 21, 2022 – Climate Cities

finish of august

Most fashions agree on a continental-scale configuration change for subsequent week, stretching from 22 to twenty-eight August 2022. Certainly, a robust anticyclone should be re-formed over the close to Atlantic earlier than it quickly expands into the North Sea and Scandinavia. Throughout this time, weak low strain anomalies might flow into between the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean.

Strain abnormality from Monday, August 22 to Sunday, August 28, 2022 (blue = low strain, pink = excessive strain) – by way of tropicaltidbits.com

If that is confirmed, we are going to discover dry and sunny circumstances in most French areas over the subsequent week, despite the fact that just a few clouds should lurk within the north at first. Temperatures would reap the benefits of this to heat up in the course of the days of the week so the warmth would attain the northern areas once more and strengthen once more within the south!

Climate and temperature forecasts in France from Monday 21 August to Sunday 28 August 2022 – Climate Cities

It’s too early to speak in regards to the magnitude of the warming projected within the final ten days of August 2022, however the variety of fashions that stand up to sturdy warmth is rising day-to-day. Under is the situation of the newest American mannequin (as of August 15 on the finish of the day) exhibiting the rise of highly regarded air over northern France. Except this situation is taken actually, most of France is taken into account extremely more likely to report values ​​between 30 and 35°C within the final ten days of the month.

Air plenty at 850 hPa (roughly 1500m) from 21 to 27 August 2022 based on the fifteenth August American mannequin – by way of wxcharts.com

In abstract, the much less scorching and extra unstable interlude we expertise is probably going to not final lengthy, and the final decade of August will probably be highly regarded and dry, which is able to delight vacationers, however with a lot much less wildlife and drought victims to flora. ..

September 2022: What late season?

As of September 2022, European and American fashions predict the recent anomaly to proceed over France and all of Western Europe. The common thermal abnormality throughout 30 days of the month will probably be 1 to 1.5°C above regular in most areas. Thus, scorching summer time days would proceed to be noticed usually all through September 2022.

Projections of thermal anomalies in September 2022 – By way of ECMWF and NOAA

Concerning precipitation, the European situation is extra impartial and there’s no clear-cut situation. The American mannequin predicts a drier-than-normal month within the south and west of France, and a extra classical month to the northeast. Nonetheless, neither of the 2 fashions produces a moist anomaly, suggesting that September 2022 is just not the month to finish the drought that has been occurring since final January.

Prediction of precipitation anomalies in September 2022 – By way of ECMWF and NOAA

Typically talking, long-term tendencies are barely much less dependable by way of precipitation than temperatures. It must also be famous that in a particularly scorching Mediterranean, all it takes to create an intense rainstorm occasion is a small despair flying over the basin. Whereas this danger has not but materialized in long-term tendencies, it nonetheless must be thought-about.

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